Global demand for LNG is forecast to rise by around 60% by 2040, largely driven by economic growth in Asia, emissions reductions in heavy industry and transport as well as the impact of artificial intelligence, Shell has said in its latest LNG Outlook 2025.

 

* Global LNG trade grew by only 2 MMT in 2024, the lowest annual increase in 10 years, to reach 407 MMT due to constrained new supply development. More than 170 MMT of new LNG supply is set to be available by 2030, “helping to meet stronger gas demand, especially in Asia, but start-up timings of new LNG projects are uncertain.”
“LNG will continue to be a fuel of choice because it’s a reliable, flexible and adaptable way to meet growing global energy demand.”

 

* LNG demand in the marine sector will rise to more than 16 MMT/Y by 2030 as LNG is becoming a cost-effective fuel for shipping and road transport, bringing down emissions today and offering pathways to incorporate lower-carbon sources such as bio-LNG or synthetic LNG.

 

* Europe will continue to need LNG into the 2030s to balance the growing share of intermittent renewables in its power sector and to ensure energy security.

 

* The USA is set to extend its lead as the world’s largest LNG exporter, potentially reaching 180 MMT/Y by 2030 and accounting for a third of global supply.

 

* The early part of 2024 saw spot LNG prices fall to their lowest level since early 2022, but prices recovered by mid-year due to delays in the development of new supply capacity.

 

* China took advantage of lower prices, importing 79 MMT during the year and India LNG imports rose to 27 MMT, up 20% YoY while European LNG imports fell by 23 MMT, down 19% YoY, due to strong renewable energy generation and a limited recovery in industrial gas demand.
However, Europe is expected to increase imports of LNG in 2025 to refill its diminished gas storage.

 

 

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